Daily Musings

Evening all

every day innovations stand to potentially change the game. But even the latest marvels of AI do not come close to the awe I felt, witnessing the Oktoberfest staff gracefully transport 10 Maas at a time. Certain that working in one of the infamous beer tends must be as physically demanding as a marathon, I share today’s musings.

Cheers
Philip

Today’s Stories

German drone maker and haymaker in the world of DefenseTech - Quantum Systems - raised EUR 44m in Series B extension. Notion and Porsche taking the shared lead. The first closing for Series B came in October 2023 for an initial chunk of EUR 64m. The unmanned aerial system developer has already gotten some big dual-use investors on their cap table - amongst them DTCP, HV, Project A, Thiel Capital and Airbus Ventures.

More in German Startup news: Cybersecurity player Enginsight raised EUR 6m. Led by UVC. Other participants include Carsten Maschmeyer; bm-t beteiligungsmanagement thüringen, Talanx, Smart Infrastructure Ventures, and Brandenburg VENTURES. What caught my eye is their pure-play focus on German SMEs. UVC mentioned their thesis centres on Enginsight addressing two issues that so far seem underserved in the SME cybersecurity offerings: Affordability and ease of integration. If successful, the market Enginsight can tap amounts to EUR 203bn in damages caused by cyberattacks annually in Germany. Value proposition clear. Differentiation TBD.

Charts of the Day

US Consumer confidence declined to 98.7 points. The steepest decline in 3 years. The index significantly missed expectations of 104.0 points. The levels for this index have last been seen @ 9% inflation. Present situation index fell to 124.3 points - lowest level since 2021. Expectations gauge decreased by 4.6 points to 81.7 points.

US inventory orders are close to as subdued as they were during COVID’s onset. Recession markers are blinking all over datasets.

BofA expects another 75bps cut for 2024. Market expectations are in line. 6 odd cuts expected in the next 8 months. Cutting rates back to 3.2% by May next year. With terminal rates like this, the current equity inflows into tech make sense. Would love to see the Gordon Growth TV in the new models. Especially considering most of the equity momentum seems pushed by a risk-on stance.

Most small cap fixed rate debt is maturing in 5-6 years. Big maturity walls. If rates progress in line with consensus repricing may come in favorable