(Almost) Daily Musings

Evening all

As I gear up for an impending wave of holiday mixers and drinks, I’m reminded of Tiger Woods. With the sort of wisdom only a Nike-sponsored athlete can deliver, he said

So, while I’m stocking up on electrolytes to ensure my body’s recovery is what it needs to be to compete—at least after three Glühweins—I share today’s musings.

Cheers
Phil

Radiating Confidence

The appeal of metaverse concerts slacked and the Zuck has shifted ambitions. Nuclear power is now on the menu. considering how unpleased investors had been with the capex plans Meta proposed during its last quarterlies, I am wondering how sentiment will take to this. Alas, in this foray Meta is following suite of other big tech names. It’s all about powering AI data centers. Meta’s RFP for up to 4 GW of nuclear capacity is a clear sign: zero-carbon electrons are the sliced bread of computing power.

Meanwhile, Germany, the ex-nuclear poster child, is sitting on a potential energy goldmine while importing electricity like it’s the 1970s oil crisis. In time for the festive season I brought some stuff to unpack:

Meta’s Nuclear Play: Big Tech’s Energy Glow-Up

Meta is throwing out a wide net for nuclear projects to fuel AI ambitions. Unlike Google, MSFT and Amazon, which have tied the knot with nuclear startups, Meta’s approach is the stuff of sell-side nightmares. RFPs:

• The ask: Up to 4 GW of nuclear capacity by the early 2030s

• Context: Open to all reactor types, locations, and creative solutions

• So what: Data centers are power guzzlers (particularly if we consider that new centers with capacities of up to 1 GW are in the pipeline — in the steaming heat of Saudi Arabia of all places — i.e. HVAC through the roof which accounts for up to 50% of the associated data center energy consumption). Not to mention: especially as AI, edge and low latency models are being rolled out the energy needs are surging for uninterrupted 24/7 energy supplies. Something renewables alone can’t yet deliver (the sun does not always shine and the wind does not always blow unless you live in Hamburg)

Meta’s move highlights Big Tech’s pivot from feel-good renewables to the serious business of energy reliability. I expect more nuclear RFPs as hyperscalers compete to avoid brownouts during GPT-7 crunch sessions

Germany: Glowsticks and Candles

In time with the Energiewende, Germany had turned its back on Nuclear Fission and decommissioned power plants left and right. I am not implying causality but now imports of energy are surging in Germany. Businesses are fleeing a shrinking economy:

• Elevated Energy Imports: After decades of energy independence, Germany imported 25 TWh net of electricity in 2024 (+9 TWh vs. 2023)

• Stagflation potential: 0.3% GDP shrinkage in 2023 followed by a projected 0.2% dip in 2024

• Businesses are packing: DIHK surveys reveal companies are seeking the exit — production cuts and relocations increasingly on the table (notable examples include Miele, Volkswagen, Uedesheimer Rheinwerk for some more info on this check out Politico’s article)

Nuclear starts to feel less passé and more prescient:

• Support surges: Two-thirds of Germans favor nuclear power, and 42% even support building new reactors.

• Missed profits: Restarting retired reactors could generate EUR 100bn over 20 years — Germany could position itself as a hub for AI computing. For now the FLAPD data center capitals still do include Frankfurt. If the fundament for nuclear energy generation is set the rest may follow

  • Some context: Hyperscalers are paying top dollar (USD 115/MWh) for clean nuclear energy. Demand for Germany to tap into

• The practical path: By 2028, three reactors could reopen, adding 4 GW of capacity (eyeing Meta’s RFP for 4GW). If legislature favours it, six more could follow by 2032

• The GER6 comeback: Germany’s six most recently decommissioned reactors are prime restart candidates — only modest overhauls and new fuel are needed

Germany’s hesitance isn’t technical—it’s political. Reactors like Brokdorf could be operational within 12-24 months if dismantling halts now